J.D. Moyer

sci-fi author, beatmaker

The Eternal Existential Threats to Democratic Societies

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On December 11

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics, Utopian Speculations

I’ve been thinking about how I’m going to handle my stress levels for the next four or more years, living under an anti-democratic government. I didn’t do so well from 2016 through 2020, suffering from several stress-related health issues. It wasn’t ALL because of our president during that time, but that was a big part of it.

First of all, I’m going to be stricter with my information diet. I’m going to follow the news less closely, with reduced frequency. I’ll probably still glance at headlines daily, but I’m not going to spend a lot of time reading about the intricacies of the latest horrible thing Trump and his cronies are doing. I know it’s going to be bad, and there’s not a whole lot I can do about it right now.

I’m also swearing off late-night comics who pillory Trump, and left-wing rage-bait YouTube. Making fun of Trump doesn’t get rid of him, and I’m already angry enough.

So what am I going to do?

I’m going to keep thinking, writing, and sharing my opinions as a still-free citizen. And I’m going to keep a long-term perspective, both for my own mental health, and as part of my self-assigned responsibility as a science fiction writer.

Threats to Democracy as Entropic Decay

Lately I’ve been thinking about threats to democracy as a process of entropic decay. A thriving democratic society requires systems to guard against internal and external threats. If sufficient energy isn’t invested into those systems, natural entropic forces will cause those systems to decay, devolve, and eventually die.

For example, a democratic society requires a reasonably educated and informed populace (so citizens can vote intelligently), a free press (to report the truth and call out corruption), a functional system of checks and balances (once again to prevent corruption and power-mongering), and many other systems (or institutions, if you prefer) to keep things running smoothy and fairly. Maintaining order in those systems requires energy (time, money, resources). There will always be bad actors who try to divert that energy into their own pockets or pet projects, arguing that we don’t really need those systems (because everything is fine). But eventually, if you divert enough resources from public education, public health, protecting journalists, etc.–then things will no longer be fine. And that’s what we’re experiencing in the United States.

In terms of personal copium, I find it helpful to think of Trump as a natural entropic force. He’s just another charismatic grifter–they’re a dime a dozen throughout history. Threats to democracy will always exist (thus eternal), and energy will always be required to push back against those threats (“eternal vigilance is the price of freedom”).

Types of Threats–Internal and External

So what are the eternal existential threats to democratic societies, exactly?

Internal Threats

  • extreme wealth inequality
  • populism/tribalism/nationalism
  • corruption
  • environmental/health
  • low birthrate

All of these threats overlap and mutually aggravate, and the result is always social mistrust and a fractured society. So which systems protect against each?

  • extreme wealth inequality (free healthcare and education, basic income/citizen stipends, progressive taxation, corporation taxation, inheritance tax, closing tax loopholes and offshorism)
  • populism/tribalism/nationalism (strong public education to reduce bigotry and ignorant voting, and, idk, maybe start a US royal family so we can all rally around a king or queen?)
  • corruption (support free press/protect journalists)
  • environmental/health (food safety, clean/air water regulations, preventative public health [vaccines, nutrition, easily accessible healthcare, etc.])
  • low birthrate (parental leave, reduce financial pressure on young people, idk?)

What about external threats? I used to more dovish, but decades of observing Putin has made me more of realist. And the glaciers are melting before our eyes…

External Threats

  • invasion
  • sabotage
  • currency/trade wars
  • natural disasters and climate change

And how do we protect against these?

  • invasion (strong, up-to-date military, high morale volunteer service, dissuasion via economic alliances)
  • sabotage (cyberwarfare defense, social media regulation to prevent foreign propaganda and divisive agents)
  • currency/trade wars (reduce deficit, encourage domestic manufacturing and resource acquisition)
  • natural disasters and climate change (reduce emissions, sequester carbon, relocate citizens in doomed zones)

Ten years ago I wouldn’t have considered invasion, but then Russia invaded Ukraine. And now Trump is talking about “annexing” Mexico and Canada. Is he joking? Probably? I hope?

So, are we fucked?

Will the United States survive the current round of entropic, anti-democratic bullshit? Ultimately I think it will, because of the many anti-fragile elements of our government. But I think we’ll see a much diminished nation. What’s likely?

  • US dollar will experience degradation as a reserve currency
  • Weakened alliances with EU and NATO, US no longer seen as a rock-solid reliable ally
  • Public health, life expectancy, and education levels will continue to decline as long as GOP is in power
  • Climate change will be ignored as long as GOP is in power

Things can always get worse, but they can also always get better. I wouldn’t be surprised if the country swings both left and small-d democratic (which is different than liberal) in the coming decade. Maybe Ray Dalio is right and there’s something to Strauss-Howe generational theory, and we’ll see the beginning of a return to civic life, strong institutions, and a more-or-less united populace around 2034.

Did She Really Lose?

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On November 14

In Culture Rants/Shares

Trigger warning: election stress

Generally I shy away from conspiracy theories, but real, actual conspiracies do exist. While the United States is undoubtedly experiencing a rightward shift in sentiment, even to the point of the outright embrace of racism and fascism by many, I’m not quite ready to accept that MORE THAN HALF actually voted for Trump.

Am I in denial? Quite possibly. But maybe it’s a little early to start analyzing why Harris’s numbers were so much lower than most reputable polls predicted.

I’ve been spending some time on the houstonwade subreddit, and some recent posts have raised my eyebrows. Were there team-Trump election shenanigans?

For example:

Was the election stolen? Probably not. But I’m hoping for recounts, especially in MI and PA, to verify that the ballots add up with the tabulation system results. The next four years will be hard enough to stomach without the sneaking suspicion that the whole thing was rigged.

Ringstation Coalition Human Rights Charter

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On November 9

In Culture Rants/Shares, Fiction Writing

In Book 2 of the Reclaimed Earth Series, there’s a reference to the Ringstation Coalition Human Rights Charter. In the final version I turned into Flame Tree Press, an overview of the charter was included in a footnote. My editor delicately informed me that formatting several epic footnotes I’d included in Book 1 had been a royal pain in the ass (especially for the e-book), and was there any way I could NOT include footnotes in The Guardian. I said sure, no big deal, I can publish it on my blog. But I don’t think I ever did…

I think as Earthlings and citizens of various nations, we each have some responsibility to think about what an ideal government would look like. And if we live in a democracy, to vote in such as way that moves us closer to that vision.

So now seems as good a time as any to publish the closest thing I have to a “political platform”. As I’m taking in the results from Tuesday’s election, my nauseous optimism has turned into sourness, despair, and no small part rage. Not a good state of mind. As a small step towards reorienting my mind towards social progress, here’s the complete footnote:

Ringstation Coalition Human Rights Charter

First: Expression (free speech, writing, assembly)

Second: Privacy (thought, perception, personal communication, consensual intimacy)

Third: Bodily Integrity (protection from abuse, forced sexuality, torture, unnecessary confinement)

Fourth: Sustenance (clean water and nutritionally sound food)

Fifth: Shelter (Earth-like pressure, gravity, air supply, housing, infrastructure)

Sixth: Justice (no detention without charge, speedy trial, innocent until proven guilty)

Seventh: Healthcare (free access to medical treatment, preventative care, regular nanodrone treatments)

Eighth: Education (no-cost full-lifespan education)

Ninth: Property (right to private property and taxation ceiling)

 

Why Do We Try Hard Things?

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On October 6

In Metaprogramming

A few weeks ago Kia dropped a huge self-knowledge bomb on my head. Well-meaning, of course. And totally off-the-cuff. But her comment made me understand something profound about myself. And that realization has significantly changed my self-image.

I was complaining about how something I was trying to do was difficult (as I often do). Kia pointed out that almost everything I try to do is difficult. Writing fiction and getting it published, producing music and selling it online, writing good software. None of these things are easy.

Crowded markets, intense competition, middling rewards–these are the hallmarks of the things I choose to do.

Even the things I do for recreation are challenging: improving my chess ELO, collecting every item in Elden Ring, collecting every shiny in Pokemon GO, painting tiny miniatures with very small brushes.

Everything I try to do is…really hard.

Maybe you’re the same way. We push ourselves in different ways. Some people run marathons or lift really heavy weights. I prefer “grindy” challenges where I try over and over again until I get slightly better at what I’m doing, or just get really lucky.

It’s not hard to understand why I enjoy taking on difficult tasks. The struggle and effort are mentally stimulating, and succeeding and/or winning feels good. If the challenge were less, so would be the intrinsic rewards.

But I didn’t fully realize that this was my way. Now, when I felt frustrated with a string of losses or a huge expenditure of effort with little immediate result, I can step back and remind myself “I chose to live this way” (and maybe dial it back a bit, or take a break).

I can be ambitious without feeling trapped by that ambition.

Words in a Likely Order

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On September 8

In Culture Rants/Shares

Last week I was working on a technical problem for a client. Someone on my team filed a support ticket with one of the software companies we’re working with. The company wrote back with a solution. Fantastic! The problem was really annoying, so I was happy to see that there was a workaround. All we needed to do was change a setting.

I looked up the setting, but couldn’t find it. I sent screenshots to the client. Could they find the setting with their admin login?

They couldn’t find it either.

My colleague wrote back to the software company. They responded that the “solution” was an AI generated response, and was incorrect.

What the actual fuck.

At least four people’s time wasted, because an AI made up some words that resembled a technical solution.

And this type of thing is happening all over the tech world. Companies are cutting costs by reducing support staff, replacing them with AI. But the end result is degraded service for the customer, and extra work for the remaining support staff sorting out the bullshit AI responses.

AI is capable of generating “words in a likely order”, as my wife puts it. But the AI doesn’t know or care if the words are true, and apparently neither do the companies deploying the AI tools.

What a fucking scam.

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