Is the United States Antifragile?

Author Nassim Taleb coined the term antifragile, which describes an entity or system that becomes stronger in response to stress. Bones are generally antifragile; if exposed to impact stress bones tend to get denser and stronger. Though even antifragile systems have weaknesses and breaking points. Bird bones are particularly resistant to torque stress but weak to impact stress; human bones the converse (as I learned the hard way when I twisted my foot on a curb). But antifragile systems have the capacity to strengthen in response to stress, pressure, volatility, and chaos.

So what about the United States? Our relatively young nation has been subjected to extreme stress multiple times, most notably the Civil War, two World Wars, the Great Depression, and the civil rights movement and cultural changes of the 1960’s. The current pandemic, resulting economic crisis, and Donald Trump’s conspiracy-theory-fueled, GOP-backed attempted coup poses the most serious threat to our national stability and integrity in my own memory.

Is there something about our governmental systems, national character, and/or geography that make us antifragile?

I would say yes, but with qualifications. Some stress responses have clearly made us stronger, such as the New Deal in reaction to the Great Depression. Other major conflicts, like the Civil War, left deep scars and hidden fractures that remain unhealed.

Arguments for Antifragility

The following make the United States more antifragile:

• Three distinct branches of federal government (Executive, Legislative, Judicial). The separation of powers has saved our democracy multiple times, mostly recently from the Frito-in-Chief’s attempt to steal the election.
• Three to four levels of government, depending on where you live (federal, state, county, municipal). If one level is destabilized by corruption, mismanagement, or loss of funding, other levels can step in to provide services until the broken level is reorganized or lost revenue streams are restored.
• A history of immigration providing cultural diversity. The unique weave of cultures that makes up the United States makes us more resilient, and gives us many possible approaches to solving problems. Immigrants are often the most motivated, ambitious, and ultimately patriotic individuals.
• A powerful decentralized economic engine (many strong sectors, including IT services, manufacturing, transport, agriculture, arts and entertainment, etc.).
• An emphasis on the power and possibility of the individual, resulting in a culture of innovation, invention, and entrepreneurism.

Arguments for Fragility

The following make the United States more fragile:

• Persistent anti-intellectualism, often in conjunction with religious dogma.
• Deep-seated systemic racism, especially towards African-Americans.
• An anti-taxation bias resulting in weak public sectors (education, healthcare, public health, etc.) and the hollowing out of the middle class (extreme wealth inequality).
• Overgrowth of the military and military misadventure (expensive, dubiously-motivated Middle Eastern wars).
• A rapidly growing national budget deficit and debt, which could become problematic as the US dollar loses its status as the preferred reserve currency.
• A weak public health sector, resulting in widespread obesity, substance abuse, and preventable infectious disease.

Ultimately I suspect that the United States is more antifragile than fragile, and that our nation will recover from many of our current ills within a few decades. But Trump’s blatant attempt to become a Putin-like dictator, and the deafening silence on the part of the GOP in response, has left me shaken and looking at emigration options.