J.D. Moyer

sci-fi author, beatmaker

Month: July 2021

Rejecting the Covid Vaccine is a Poor-Odds Bet

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On July 24

In Culture Rants/Shares, Health/Body-hacking

Even among the well educated, people are avoiding or delaying the Covid vaccine.

Some of the reasons for vaccine avoidance, like the fear of getting microchipped, are ridiculous.

Other reasons, such as fear of side effects, are more rational.

But no matter how you slice the pie, avoiding the vaccine is a terrible decision, statistically. This is true even though most people who avoid the vaccine will not die or get seriously ill from Covid.

If someone offered you a small reward, say $10, for taking a risk with a low likelihood of occurring, but potentially dire consequences, you would be wise to turn down that bet. You wouldn’t play Russian roulette for $10, even if the revolver chambered a hundred bullets and ninety-nine were empty.

Betting your health, reputation, or your entire net worth is an all-in bet. Even if the potential rewards are amazing, all-in bets are always a bad idea.

When you take on risk, the winning strategy is always to take on the least risk possible for the greatest possible reward. Rejecting the Covid vaccine is the opposite kind of bet: low reward but potentially high risk. It’s the same kind of bet you take if you don’t wear a seat belt in a car, or don’t wear a helmet while riding a motorcycle.

The reward for rejecting the Covid vaccine is avoiding 1-2 days of normal side effects (I had them, they’re unpleasant), and also avoiding the extremely small chance (~1 in 250,000 at the most) of serious side effects. The risk is that you’ll become seriously ill or die of Covid. If you’re young and healthy, perhaps this is only a 1 in 1,000 chance, but it could be as high as 1 in 50 if you’re older and/or have underlying health conditions.

If you want to take risks with your health, take small risks that have potentially great rewards. Take multiple walks every day. There are risks associated with taking walks, even if you’re careful how you go about it. But the risks are generally low, and the rewards (better mood, better cardiovascular health, reduced risk of diabetes) are huge.

Life is full of risk, much of it unavoidable. But when we consciously choose to take on more risk, we should make sure the upside is worth it.

A Solarpunk Manifesto

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On July 19

In Alternative Economics, Culture Rants/Shares, Utopian Speculations, Writing

The other day I found A Solarpunk Manifesto in my inbox, thanks to Joe Stech and his News Refinery newsletter.

I was vaguely aware of solarpunk as a genre, associating it with progressive technological optimism, an alternative to both dystopian science fiction and steampunk. But I’d never read any attempt to describe it explicitly.

Reading the manifesto, my general reaction was yes. Count me in for science fiction as activism, post-scarcity, post-capitalism, post-hierarchical society, and the whole shebang.

While I’ve never described the Reclaimed Earth series as solarpunk, the Ringstation Coalition culture checks all of the boxes. So do aspects of my novelette The Icelandic Cure, and many of my short stories.

So yeah, I guess I’m a solarpunk author, at least in part.

Here’s the manifesto in full, shared via Creative Commons license:

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First Trip to Europe Since the Beginning of the Pandemic

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On July 10

In Travel


We’re in the south of France right now, visiting my father and his wife. It’s beautiful here, but very hot, and we’re taking life at a slow pace. So this will be an extremely short post.

But I did want to share a little bit about our travel experience. I tried to find similar information online before we left, but France had changed their travel rules only the week before, so there wasn’t much.

We flew out of Oakland, where we were asked if we were vaccinated, but not required to show proof. The US is currently on France’s “green light” list, meaning travelers can enter the country with proof of vaccination, and a Covid negative test is not required. We boarded our plane, transferred in LAX and then Atlanta, where we boarded our Airbus to CDG. At no point were we asked to show our vaccination cards.

Arriving in CDG, we were finally asked to show our passports and vaccination cards. Currently France accepts Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccinations. We showed our vaccination cards and passports, and that was it. No questions, no temperature checks.

So overall, an extremely easy process.

Just wanted to share that information for fellow travelers. Though obviously things are still changing rapidly. With the Delta variant on the rise in the US, we could easily end up back on the “amber light” list, where a negative Covid test is required.

Safe travels, and please get vaccinated if you haven’t already. Yeah, the side effects suck, but they’re almost always over within a day or two.

Three Spreadsheets I Use While Writing a Novel

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On July 5

In Fiction Writing, Writing

I unabashedly love spreadsheets. I view spreadsheets as intelligent pieces of paper: totally freeform, but capable of calculations, lookups, list organization, and even database formats. Spreadsheets are a powerful technology that can externalize mental processes, organization, and memory.

I use spreadsheets for tracking my goals, health, personal finance, RPG games, and all sorts of other things. When I’m writing a novel, I primarily rely on spreadsheets to keep track of characters, scenes, and timelines. Here are a few examples:

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