Even among the well educated, people are avoiding or delaying the Covid vaccine.
Some of the reasons for vaccine avoidance, like the fear of getting microchipped, are ridiculous.
Other reasons, such as fear of side effects, are more rational.
But no matter how you slice the pie, avoiding the vaccine is a terrible decision, statistically. This is true even though most people who avoid the vaccine will not die or get seriously ill from Covid.
If someone offered you a small reward, say $10, for taking a risk with a low likelihood of occurring, but potentially dire consequences, you would be wise to turn down that bet. You wouldn’t play Russian roulette for $10, even if the revolver chambered a hundred bullets and ninety-nine were empty.
Betting your health, reputation, or your entire net worth is an all-in bet. Even if the potential rewards are amazing, all-in bets are always a bad idea.
When you take on risk, the winning strategy is always to take on the least risk possible for the greatest possible reward. Rejecting the Covid vaccine is the opposite kind of bet: low reward but potentially high risk. It’s the same kind of bet you take if you don’t wear a seat belt in a car, or don’t wear a helmet while riding a motorcycle.
The reward for rejecting the Covid vaccine is avoiding 1-2 days of normal side effects (I had them, they’re unpleasant), and also avoiding the extremely small chance (~1 in 250,000 at the most) of serious side effects. The risk is that you’ll become seriously ill or die of Covid. If you’re young and healthy, perhaps this is only a 1 in 1,000 chance, but it could be as high as 1 in 50 if you’re older and/or have underlying health conditions.
If you want to take risks with your health, take small risks that have potentially great rewards. Take multiple walks every day. There are risks associated with taking walks, even if you’re careful how you go about it. But the risks are generally low, and the rewards (better mood, better cardiovascular health, reduced risk of diabetes) are huge.
Life is full of risk, much of it unavoidable. But when we consciously choose to take on more risk, we should make sure the upside is worth it.
J.D. Moyer
You could also flip the equation: getting the Covid vaccine is a low-risk bet with high rewards (almost guaranteed protection from dying or getting seriously ill from a highly contagious virus, plus the satisfaction of contributing to herd immunity).