J.D. Moyer

sci-fi author, beatmaker

Category: Politics Page 1 of 5

The Eternal Existential Threats to Democratic Societies

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On December 11

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics, Utopian Speculations

I’ve been thinking about how I’m going to handle my stress levels for the next four or more years, living under an anti-democratic government. I didn’t do so well from 2016 through 2020, suffering from several stress-related health issues. It wasn’t ALL because of our president during that time, but that was a big part of it.

First of all, I’m going to be stricter with my information diet. I’m going to follow the news less closely, with reduced frequency. I’ll probably still glance at headlines daily, but I’m not going to spend a lot of time reading about the intricacies of the latest horrible thing Trump and his cronies are doing. I know it’s going to be bad, and there’s not a whole lot I can do about it right now.

I’m also swearing off late-night comics who pillory Trump, and left-wing rage-bait YouTube. Making fun of Trump doesn’t get rid of him, and I’m already angry enough.

So what am I going to do?

I’m going to keep thinking, writing, and sharing my opinions as a still-free citizen. And I’m going to keep a long-term perspective, both for my own mental health, and as part of my self-assigned responsibility as a science fiction writer.

Threats to Democracy as Entropic Decay

Lately I’ve been thinking about threats to democracy as a process of entropic decay. A thriving democratic society requires systems to guard against internal and external threats. If sufficient energy isn’t invested into those systems, natural entropic forces will cause those systems to decay, devolve, and eventually die.

For example, a democratic society requires a reasonably educated and informed populace (so citizens can vote intelligently), a free press (to report the truth and call out corruption), a functional system of checks and balances (once again to prevent corruption and power-mongering), and many other systems (or institutions, if you prefer) to keep things running smoothy and fairly. Maintaining order in those systems requires energy (time, money, resources). There will always be bad actors who try to divert that energy into their own pockets or pet projects, arguing that we don’t really need those systems (because everything is fine). But eventually, if you divert enough resources from public education, public health, protecting journalists, etc.–then things will no longer be fine. And that’s what we’re experiencing in the United States.

In terms of personal copium, I find it helpful to think of Trump as a natural entropic force. He’s just another charismatic grifter–they’re a dime a dozen throughout history. Threats to democracy will always exist (thus eternal), and energy will always be required to push back against those threats (“eternal vigilance is the price of freedom”).

Types of Threats–Internal and External

So what are the eternal existential threats to democratic societies, exactly?

Internal Threats

  • extreme wealth inequality
  • populism/tribalism/nationalism
  • corruption
  • environmental/health
  • low birthrate

All of these threats overlap and mutually aggravate, and the result is always social mistrust and a fractured society. So which systems protect against each?

  • extreme wealth inequality (free healthcare and education, basic income/citizen stipends, progressive taxation, corporation taxation, inheritance tax, closing tax loopholes and offshorism)
  • populism/tribalism/nationalism (strong public education to reduce bigotry and ignorant voting, and, idk, maybe start a US royal family so we can all rally around a king or queen?)
  • corruption (support free press/protect journalists)
  • environmental/health (food safety, clean/air water regulations, preventative public health [vaccines, nutrition, easily accessible healthcare, etc.])
  • low birthrate (parental leave, reduce financial pressure on young people, idk?)

What about external threats? I used to more dovish, but decades of observing Putin has made me more of realist. And the glaciers are melting before our eyes…

External Threats

  • invasion
  • sabotage
  • currency/trade wars
  • natural disasters and climate change

And how do we protect against these?

  • invasion (strong, up-to-date military, high morale volunteer service, dissuasion via economic alliances)
  • sabotage (cyberwarfare defense, social media regulation to prevent foreign propaganda and divisive agents)
  • currency/trade wars (reduce deficit, encourage domestic manufacturing and resource acquisition)
  • natural disasters and climate change (reduce emissions, sequester carbon, relocate citizens in doomed zones)

Ten years ago I wouldn’t have considered invasion, but then Russia invaded Ukraine. And now Trump is talking about “annexing” Mexico and Canada. Is he joking? Probably? I hope?

So, are we fucked?

Will the United States survive the current round of entropic, anti-democratic bullshit? Ultimately I think it will, because of the many anti-fragile elements of our government. But I think we’ll see a much diminished nation. What’s likely?

  • US dollar will experience degradation as a reserve currency
  • Weakened alliances with EU and NATO, US no longer seen as a rock-solid reliable ally
  • Public health, life expectancy, and education levels will continue to decline as long as GOP is in power
  • Climate change will be ignored as long as GOP is in power

Things can always get worse, but they can also always get better. I wouldn’t be surprised if the country swings both left and small-d democratic (which is different than liberal) in the coming decade. Maybe Ray Dalio is right and there’s something to Strauss-Howe generational theory, and we’ll see the beginning of a return to civic life, strong institutions, and a more-or-less united populace around 2034.

More on Ideological Subversion

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On August 30

In Culture Rants/Shares, Personal Updates, Politics

I’m trying to learn more about ideological subversion, specifically the KGB-backed, bring-down-the-USA kind. Last week I linked to this NYT Op-Ed that serves as a kind of broad introduction to the concept. This week I read a post on Paul Orlando’s blog Unintended Consequences that gets into some more details. (The post is concise and illuminating, please click through and read.) Orlando summarizes the four stages of ideological subversion as outlined by ex-KGB agent Yuri Bezmenov:

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Is the United States Antifragile?

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On December 16

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics

Author Nassim Taleb coined the term antifragile, which describes an entity or system that becomes stronger in response to stress. Bones are generally antifragile; if exposed to impact stress bones tend to get denser and stronger. Though even antifragile systems have weaknesses and breaking points. Bird bones are particularly resistant to torque stress but weak to impact stress; human bones the converse (as I learned the hard way when I twisted my foot on a curb). But antifragile systems have the capacity to strengthen in response to stress, pressure, volatility, and chaos.

So what about the United States? Our relatively young nation has been subjected to extreme stress multiple times, most notably the Civil War, two World Wars, the Great Depression, and the civil rights movement and cultural changes of the 1960’s. The current pandemic, resulting economic crisis, and Donald Trump’s conspiracy-theory-fueled, GOP-backed attempted coup poses the most serious threat to our national stability and integrity in my own memory.

Is there something about our governmental systems, national character, and/or geography that make us antifragile?

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What Will the Structural Collapse (or Rebirth) of the United States Look Like?

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On November 14

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics, Utopian Speculations

Let’s start the weekend with some gloom-and-doom, shall we?

First, Chris Hedges, a journalist who has been calling out the moral bankruptcy and pyramid-scheme economy of the United States for some time.

In this short film by Amanda Zackem, Hedges highlights the bread-and-circuses distractions of entertainment, consumerism, and digital media that distract U.S. citizens from the plutocratic consolidation of wealth and plundering of the state.

Next, let’s spend some time with Peter Turchin and his mathematical approach to “megahistory” in this excellent profile by Graeme Wood. Turchin, a Russian zoologist who turned his attention to the study of mathematical patterns in human history, famously predicted the unrest of 2020 back in 2010. Turchin believes he has uncovered iron laws of human societal evolution, cycles of unrest perpetuated by the “overproduction of elites.” In the United States, Turchin asserts that 1920, 1970, and 2020 are all points of major civil unrest on his 50-year historical cycle graph.

Peter Turchin hypothesizes that too many elites competing for too few elite positions leads to the creation of “counter-elites”: troublemakers who rise to power by allying with the non-elite classes. He gives Steve Bannon as an example of a counter-elite. Bannon was raised working-class, attended Harvard Business School, got rich via various investments and a small share of the Seinfeld television show, but only rose to power via his Breitbart race-baiting tactics.

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How to Deal with Your Whiteness

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On November 10

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics

Trump was elected because of whites. He was almost reelected because of whites.

“Rural” voters supported Trump, as did “working class” voters. But those are codes for white rural voters and white working class voters. African-American rural and working class voters didn’t support Trump. Asian-American rural and working class voters didn’t support the “kung-flu” president either.

Trump ran on whiteness and was nearly reelected on whiteness. His language regarding the “greatness” of America was code for a white-dominated America protecting itself against non-white foreigners. Given multiple opportunities, he consistently refused to denounce white supremacy.

Despite his utter incompetence, open racism, misogyny, and catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic, Trump won the majority of the white vote. Again. Whites, as a group, failed to denounce Trump and all that he stands for.

White people, including white liberals such as myself who didn’t vote for Trump and spoke out against for him for four years, have a problem. And that problem is whiteness itself, and our stubborn, overly sensitive refusal to acknowledge and deal with it.

Triggered

Are you triggered, being referred to as part of the white voting bloc? I know I am. I want to be seen as an individual. I don’t want to take responsibility for the collective actions of my broad cultural category. Why should I? I didn’t vote for Trump. I hate the guy and everything he stands for.

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