As far as I can tell, the world isn’t ending today. The Mayan calendar rolls over to a new stone, or a longer ring cycle.
So what is ending? Certain worldviews are on the decline, and I say good riddance.
On their way out:
I took away three main points from Steven Pinker’s recent Long Now lecture discussing the ideas behind his book The Better Angels of Our Nature.
The Messy Utopia
Let’s assume for a minute that the human race avoids destroying itself within the next 100 years. Somehow we’ve made it through global warming, peak oil, massive financial deleveraging, food shortages, our population peaking, droughts and floods, supervolcanoes, weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, corporate malfeasance, extreme concentrations of wealth, ocean acidification and coral reef destruction and the collapse of natural fisheries. Some of these things turned out to be more serious than we thought, some less so, and a whole bunch of other stuff happened that we didn’t even consider or predict at all.
But we’re still here. Maybe 9 billion of us in 2112. Maybe significantly fewer if things have gotten really bad. But still quite a few human beings either way.
So what kind of world do we want to be living in, 100 years from now?
History has shown us pretty clearly that the single-minded relentless pursuit of a “perfect” idealized society is a terrible idea. When the “end” is conceived as infinitely good, that opens up the “means” to be pretty awful (forced relocations, prison camps, and outright genocide, for example).
But that doesn’t mean we have to throw out the idea of progress altogether, or stop trying to envision a better society. Is there room for the pursuit of “messy” utopias?
Here’s how I would contrast a “messy utopia” vs. a “classic utopia”:
Classic Utopia | Messy Utopia |
-homogenous population | -diverse population |
-rural/pastoral | -capitalizes on efficiencies of cities |
-clean slate/new land | -builds/improves on what exists |
-one right way | -many good ways |
-static/fixed | -constantly evolving |
-ignores empirical evidence | -uses empirical evidence |
-anti-elite/anti-intellectual | -integrates/uses elites |
-disregards less-abled | -accommodates less-abled |
-attempts to eliminate problems | -develops systems for coping with problems |
-demands moral standards | -encourages moral behavior |
-traditional social roles | -wildly divergent social roles |
-draconian state power | -judicious use of state power |
The “classic utopia” comes in many flavors. Some are secular, others are religious. Some are conservative and some are liberal. All of them are fantastical and not firmly grounded in a realistic view of the world. Here are some examples:
One could go on with visions of libertarian floating city tax havens, anarchist freegan collectives, and so on. These movements, books, and views are not dangerous — what is dangerous is when a powerful insane individual or government tries to implement any kind of utopia with a top-down authoritative approach.
Realism and Optimism Can Co-Exist
I like the idea of envisioning a multitude of messy utopias. Here are my thoughts on rehabilitating the word “progress”:
What do you think?
Capitalism, as we know it, is reaching the natural end of its global life cycle.
Human beings will retain some of the better aspects of capitalism, including the right to private property, competition in well-regulated markets, robust trade, reasonable compensation for intellectual property, and a modified corporate structure.
The aspects of capitalism that are not long for this world include:
In short, we’re moving towards humane markets (providing for each other) and away from human markets (exploiting each other).
Why is predatory, consumeristic capitalism on its way out? A number of factors are simultaneously converging:
In summary, the 10,000-year pyramid scheme that has been generating wealth at the expense of non-renewable planetary resources has reached its limit. We have exhausted, in order, mega-fauna, pristine virgin forests, fossil fuels, free food from the ocean, fresh water sources, and an atmosphere that regulates temperature, rainfall, and local weather patterns. We have even used up some elements (like helium, which permanently escapes into outer space), and destroyed entire landscapes to extract gold, silver, copper, and rare metals.
The free ride is over, and now we begin a slow, painful deleveraging (both ecological and financial/economic) as we attempt to repair ecological systems and weather our own population peak (in other words, taper off, and not collapse).
So what do we do now? Is all hope lost?
The alternatives to consumeristic predatory capitalism are not mysterious, nebulous, or theoretical. They are already operating and established in many ways, on both large and small scales. Some examples include:
Some citizens of the United States are slavishly dedicated to right-wing “winner take all” capitalism, and are outrageously fearful of the lefty pinko “welfare state.” What is really threatening the wealth of our country is not worker benefits, food stamps, public schools, and national healthcare, but rather unfunded long-term invasions of foreign countries, Wall Street bailouts, and ultra-rich tax dodgers.
The Way Forward
Globally, we’ve already explored the consequences of extreme collectivism. We’re not going back. Reasonably regulated free markets are more efficient and generate more wealth than markets that are owned and operated by the state, with no private incentives. I’m not arguing for communism, an end to private ownership, or for “all information to be free” (no intellectual property rights).
What I’m pointing out is that the unstoppable trends of human population peak, the Anthropocene, and open-source production and distribution leave us no choice but to provide for each other during the big deleveraging. Nations that prioritize the health and wealth of citizens over the health and wealth of corporations will fare better during the approaching epoch of restoration, repair, and rewilding.
Is the future of humanity bright? I think it is, especially in terms of scientific and technological progress.
Is consumeristic “winner take all” capitalism the best system for ushering in a bright future for humanity? The Libertarian Space Men think so. I’m placing my bets with the Gaia Collective.
Since the advent of the nation state in the 19th century, human beings have been collectively obsessed with comparing the relative merits of our sovereign entities. Who has the biggest navy and the fastest planes? Who has the most territory and natural resources? Who has the most modern, efficient infrastructure, the fastest broadband, and the best recycling program? Whose educational system produces the smartest workers? Who is the most free, the most happy, and the most innovative? And so on …
But what if we zoom out a few hundred miles and look at the big blue marble. How are we doing collectively, as an intelligent species/civilization?
I’ve been thinking about the Occupy Wall Street movement and where it might lead. Up until today I entertained the view Chris Hedges expresses in the interview below, that we may reach some sort of tipping point where the police “cross the line” and refuse to follow orders (to disband protest encampments), leading to who knows what (revolution? new government?).
The more I thought about this possibility, the less likely this scenario seemed. Why?
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