Utopian Speculations Archives

I’ve been thinking about how I’m going to handle my stress levels for the next four or more years, living under an anti-democratic government. I didn’t do so well from 2016 through 2020, suffering from several stress-related health issues. It wasn’t ALL because of our president during that time, but that was a big part of it.

First of all, I’m going to be stricter with my information diet. I’m going to follow the news less closely, with reduced frequency. I’ll probably still glance at headlines daily, but I’m not going to spend a lot of time reading about the intricacies of the latest horrible thing Trump and his cronies are doing. I know it’s going to be bad, and there’s not a whole lot I can do about it right now.

I’m also swearing off late-night comics who pillory Trump, and left-wing rage-bait YouTube. Making fun of Trump doesn’t get rid of him, and I’m already angry enough.

So what am I going to do?

I’m going to keep thinking, writing, and sharing my opinions as a still-free citizen. And I’m going to keep a long-term perspective, both for my own mental health, and as part of my self-assigned responsibility as a science fiction writer.

Threats to Democracy as Entropic Decay

Lately I’ve been thinking about threats to democracy as a process of entropic decay. A thriving democratic society requires systems to guard against internal and external threats. If sufficient energy isn’t invested into those systems, natural entropic forces will cause those systems to decay, devolve, and eventually die.

For example, a democratic society requires a reasonably educated and informed populace (so citizens can vote intelligently), a free press (to report the truth and call out corruption), a functional system of checks and balances (once again to prevent corruption and power-mongering), and many other systems (or institutions, if you prefer) to keep things running smoothy and fairly. Maintaining order in those systems requires energy (time, money, resources). There will always be bad actors who try to divert that energy into their own pockets or pet projects, arguing that we don’t really need those systems (because everything is fine). But eventually, if you divert enough resources from public education, public health, protecting journalists, etc.–then things will no longer be fine. And that’s what we’re experiencing in the United States.

In terms of personal copium, I find it helpful to think of Trump as a natural entropic force. He’s just another charismatic grifter–they’re a dime a dozen throughout history. Threats to democracy will always exist (thus eternal), and energy will always be required to push back against those threats (“eternal vigilance is the price of freedom”).

Types of Threats–Internal and External

So what are the eternal existential threats to democratic societies, exactly?

Internal Threats

extreme wealth inequality
populism/tribalism/nationalism
corruption
environmental/health
low birthrate

All of these threats overlap and mutually aggravate, and the result is always social mistrust and a fractured society. So which systems protect against each?

extreme wealth inequality (free healthcare and education, basic income/citizen stipends, progressive taxation, corporation taxation, inheritance tax, closing tax loopholes and offshorism)
populism/tribalism/nationalism (strong public education to reduce bigotry and ignorant voting, and, idk, maybe start a US royal family so we can all rally around a king or queen?)
corruption (support free press/protect journalists)
environmental/health (food safety, clean/air water regulations, preventative public health [vaccines, nutrition, easily accessible healthcare, etc.])
low birthrate (parental leave, reduce financial pressure on young people, idk?)

What about external threats? I used to more dovish, but decades of observing Putin has made me more of realist. And the glaciers are melting before our eyes…

External Threats

invasion
sabotage
currency/trade wars
natural disasters and climate change

And how do we protect against these?

invasion (strong, up-to-date military, high morale volunteer service, dissuasion via economic alliances)
sabotage (cyberwarfare defense, social media regulation to prevent foreign propaganda and divisive agents)
currency/trade wars (reduce deficit, encourage domestic manufacturing and resource acquisition)
natural disasters and climate change (reduce emissions, sequester carbon, relocate citizens in doomed zones)

Ten years ago I wouldn’t have considered invasion, but then Russia invaded Ukraine. And now Trump is talking about “annexing” Mexico and Canada. Is he joking? Probably? I hope?

So, are we fucked?

Will the United States survive the current round of entropic, anti-democratic bullshit? Ultimately I think it will, because of the many anti-fragile elements of our government. But I think we’ll see a much diminished nation. What’s likely?

US dollar will experience degradation as a reserve currency
Weakened alliances with EU and NATO, US no longer seen as a rock-solid reliable ally
Public health, life expectancy, and education levels will continue to decline as long as GOP is in power
Climate change will be ignored as long as GOP is in power

Things can always get worse, but they can also always get better. I wouldn’t be surprised if the country swings both left and small-d democratic (which is different than liberal) in the coming decade. Maybe Ray Dalio is right and there’s something to Strauss-Howe generational theory, and we’ll see the beginning of a return to civic life, strong institutions, and a more-or-less united populace around 2034.

Purpose Is the Fifth Idol

By J.D. Moyer

On September 16

In Creative Work/Career, Culture Rants/Shares, Utopian Speculations

In Tim Ferriss’s recent interview with Arthur Brooks, Brooks discusses the four false idols, what Thomas Aquinas called “the four substitutes for God.” Aquinas named those substitutes as honor, wealth, pleasure, and power, but Brooks uses fame as an Instagram-age stand-in for honor.

In this short, Brooks uses U.S. cities to demonstrate each of the four false idols, or vices: New York is money (wealth), D.C. is power, Vegas is pleasure, and Los Angeles is fame. He asks which one motivates you? Which one leads you to make poor decisions?

That got me thinking, what’s the main vice of San Francisco? Historically, pleasure has its role in the Barbary Coast sense. So does wealth (gold rush, tech booms, etc.). But I would say SF’s main vice is purpose. A lot of San Francisco’s ambition is funneled toward meaning, vision, and progress. This can become pathological in a number of ways. San Francisco’s Summer of Love had a dark, druggy, rapey, violent underbelly. Visions of improving society with technology can easily tip into Panglossian techno-utopianism.

And maybe that’s what Aquinas meant, at least partially, by honor. Because there’s a performative aspect to the pursuit of purpose and progress. We (especially San Franciscans) want to to appear as if we’re doing good deeds and making the world a better place. So sometimes we virtue signal more than we act virtuously. It’s not for want of fame, it’s the desire to have a good reputation, to be seen as honorable, that can get us in trouble.

And then there’s the true believers, who get a dopamine high by pursuing their dreams for the future of humanity and society: a colony on Mars, self-aware computer programs, fleets of self-driving electric cars, fusion power that provides unlimited electricity at negligible cost. What could go wrong?

Even the artistic side of purpose has a dark side. Putin’s dark reign is greatly inspired by the science fiction works of author Mikhail Yuriev. Purpose is my own main vice–my desire to write science fiction is largely purpose driven. And while I don’t think my science fiction works have injured anyone, it’s always possible to put bad ideas out into the world. And the blind pursuit of purpose via art can easily lead a person to personal and financial ruin.

So yeah, purpose is the fifth idol. Fame certainly belongs on the list, but Aquinas didn’t know about Hollywood or Instagram. So honor should be subdivided into fame and purpose.

A Solarpunk Manifesto

By J.D. Moyer

On July 19

In Alternative Economics, Culture Rants/Shares, Utopian Speculations, Writing

The other day I found A Solarpunk Manifesto in my inbox, thanks to Joe Stech and his News Refinery newsletter.

I was vaguely aware of solarpunk as a genre, associating it with progressive technological optimism, an alternative to both dystopian science fiction and steampunk. But I’d never read any attempt to describe it explicitly.

Reading the manifesto, my general reaction was yes. Count me in for science fiction as activism, post-scarcity, post-capitalism, post-hierarchical society, and the whole shebang.

While I’ve never described the Reclaimed Earth series as solarpunk, the Ringstation Coalition culture checks all of the boxes. So do aspects of my novelette The Icelandic Cure, and many of my short stories.

So yeah, I guess I’m a solarpunk author, at least in part.

Here’s the manifesto in full, shared via Creative Commons license:

The Roaring Twenties Redux?

By J.D. Moyer

On December 21

In Culture Rants/Shares, Utopian Speculations

Kia and I were talking about all the things we want to do post-pandemic. We want to see all our friends and family, eat out at restaurants, go to concerts, travel, and everything else we haven’t been able to do for nearly a year now. Will we actually do all those things once we get the chance? It’s hard to say; maybe those activities will feel too stimulating and overwhelming after living the quiet inside life for so many months. But I imagine there will at least be a period of overcompensation, not only by us but by most people globally. Many are in dire economic straits because of the pandemic, so it remains to be seen how much of a consumer spending boom will result. But the appetite will be there.

The conversation got me wondering how much of the Roaring Twenties of the 20th century had to do with the exuberance and relief that followed not only the end of World War I, but the end of the 1918 flu pandemic that killed 675,000 Americans and 50 million worldwide. The good times didn’t begin right away. The U.S. experienced high inflation for several years due to pent-up demand, short supply, and the end of rationing rules. Wages didn’t keep up with rising prices and workers went on strike as a result. Class and racial tensions boiled over in many cities, resulting in riots and numerous deaths.

In 1921 the Fed lowered interest rates, President Harding provided national unemployment relief, and the U.S. economy was off to the races. Economic boom times were accompanied and amplified by cultural changes: women’s suffrage, the availability of birth control and the possibility for smaller families, the automobile, radios in most households, frequent cinema outings, and the rise and growing influence of Black culture (jazz, dance halls, the Harlem Renaissance, etc.). Reactionary and racist groups pushed back via Prohibition, Ku Klux Klan membership, the anti-communist “Red Scare” movement, and the Anti-Immigration act of 1924. But the mood of many in the country was exuberant, expansionistic, and celebratory.

21st Century Redux?

Could our own twenties follow a similar path? As a thought experiment, what factors would need to exist and co-conspire to create our own Roaring decade?

What Will the Structural Collapse (or Rebirth) of the United States Look Like?

By J.D. Moyer

On November 14

In Culture Rants/Shares, Politics, Utopian Speculations

Let’s start the weekend with some gloom-and-doom, shall we?

First, Chris Hedges, a journalist who has been calling out the moral bankruptcy and pyramid-scheme economy of the United States for some time.

In this short film by Amanda Zackem, Hedges highlights the bread-and-circuses distractions of entertainment, consumerism, and digital media that distract U.S. citizens from the plutocratic consolidation of wealth and plundering of the state.

Next, let’s spend some time with Peter Turchin and his mathematical approach to “megahistory” in this excellent profile by Graeme Wood. Turchin, a Russian zoologist who turned his attention to the study of mathematical patterns in human history, famously predicted the unrest of 2020 back in 2010. Turchin believes he has uncovered iron laws of human societal evolution, cycles of unrest perpetuated by the “overproduction of elites.” In the United States, Turchin asserts that 1920, 1970, and 2020 are all points of major civil unrest on his 50-year historical cycle graph.

Peter Turchin hypothesizes that too many elites competing for too few elite positions leads to the creation of “counter-elites”: troublemakers who rise to power by allying with the non-elite classes. He gives Steve Bannon as an example of a counter-elite. Bannon was raised working-class, attended Harvard Business School, got rich via various investments and a small share of the Seinfeld television show, but only rose to power via his Breitbart race-baiting tactics.

sci-fi author, beatmaker

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