J.D. Moyer

sci-fi author, beatmaker

Strategic Thinking: What Has Changed?

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On August 23

In Culture Rants/Shares

Lately I’ve been playing chess. I’m not very good. After a hundred-or-so games in recent weeks, I can beat the lichess.org computer at level 4 only about 20% of the time (no time limit). For the first few weeks I was getting back into chess, I played human beings from around the world in timed games. But I found that playing computer opponents, without a time limit, is less stressful and helps me learn more quickly.

My main weakness in chess is getting too excited about my plan, and moving my pieces before carefully evaluating the board. One question I’ve been asking myself lately after my opponent’s move is what has changed?

I find this question more useful than trying to ask myself what my opponent’s intentions are. A single move in chess often does multiple things, opening up multiple avenues of attack but also weakening defenses. My opponent may not even realize all the repercussions of their move. And if I don’t look carefully, I certainly won’t.

I’ve been considering this same question in different contexts, including my personal life, the trajectory of the United States, and global climate and ecosystems. Developments in the United States are most relevant to strategic, competitive thinking; our nation and way of life has actual enemies trying to bring us down.

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Ten Years Later, a New Pivot Point

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On August 15

In Metaprogramming

Ten years ago I wrote this post about pivot points. Pivot points are conscious decisions about how to live your life differently. Examples could be quitting alcohol or drugs, leaving a toxic relationship, resigning from an unfulfilling job, starting your dream career, or changing the way you interact with people so that you’re not constantly giving away your power and making yourself smaller.

Rereading that post, I realized that I’d made another pivot point. What I had intended to be a one year experiment turned out to be a permanent change.

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Keeping Promises to the Reader

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On August 8

In Creative Work/Career, Writing

I’m in the final chapters of the first draft of Saint Arcology, a science fiction novel set in Mumbai involving a progressive pope, a Vatican plot, genetically engineered mollusks, a society of radicalized scientists, a blasphemous augmented reality game, a fake guru, and a solution to global poverty.

The main plot climax has already occurred, but I’m not the kind of author than can just fade to black. I feel as if I’ve made promises to potential readers of this story. My checklist for wrapping up a novel includes the following:

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Rejecting the Covid Vaccine is a Poor-Odds Bet

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On July 24

In Culture Rants/Shares, Health/Body-hacking

Even among the well educated, people are avoiding or delaying the Covid vaccine.

Some of the reasons for vaccine avoidance, like the fear of getting microchipped, are ridiculous.

Other reasons, such as fear of side effects, are more rational.

But no matter how you slice the pie, avoiding the vaccine is a terrible decision, statistically. This is true even though most people who avoid the vaccine will not die or get seriously ill from Covid.

If someone offered you a small reward, say $10, for taking a risk with a low likelihood of occurring, but potentially dire consequences, you would be wise to turn down that bet. You wouldn’t play Russian roulette for $10, even if the revolver chambered a hundred bullets and ninety-nine were empty.

Betting your health, reputation, or your entire net worth is an all-in bet. Even if the potential rewards are amazing, all-in bets are always a bad idea.

When you take on risk, the winning strategy is always to take on the least risk possible for the greatest possible reward. Rejecting the Covid vaccine is the opposite kind of bet: low reward but potentially high risk. It’s the same kind of bet you take if you don’t wear a seat belt in a car, or don’t wear a helmet while riding a motorcycle.

The reward for rejecting the Covid vaccine is avoiding 1-2 days of normal side effects (I had them, they’re unpleasant), and also avoiding the extremely small chance (~1 in 250,000 at the most) of serious side effects. The risk is that you’ll become seriously ill or die of Covid. If you’re young and healthy, perhaps this is only a 1 in 1,000 chance, but it could be as high as 1 in 50 if you’re older and/or have underlying health conditions.

If you want to take risks with your health, take small risks that have potentially great rewards. Take multiple walks every day. There are risks associated with taking walks, even if you’re careful how you go about it. But the risks are generally low, and the rewards (better mood, better cardiovascular health, reduced risk of diabetes) are huge.

Life is full of risk, much of it unavoidable. But when we consciously choose to take on more risk, we should make sure the upside is worth it.

A Solarpunk Manifesto

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On July 19

In Alternative Economics, Culture Rants/Shares, Utopian Speculations, Writing

The other day I found A Solarpunk Manifesto in my inbox, thanks to Joe Stech and his News Refinery newsletter.

I was vaguely aware of solarpunk as a genre, associating it with progressive technological optimism, an alternative to both dystopian science fiction and steampunk. But I’d never read any attempt to describe it explicitly.

Reading the manifesto, my general reaction was yes. Count me in for science fiction as activism, post-scarcity, post-capitalism, post-hierarchical society, and the whole shebang.

While I’ve never described the Reclaimed Earth series as solarpunk, the Ringstation Coalition culture checks all of the boxes. So do aspects of my novelette The Icelandic Cure, and many of my short stories.

So yeah, I guess I’m a solarpunk author, at least in part.

Here’s the manifesto in full, shared via Creative Commons license:

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