J.D. Moyer

sci-fi author, beatmaker

Humbled by the Masters (on YouTube)

The amount of high-level knowledge and technique being casually shared on YouTube, TikTok, and blogs is absolutely stunning. The world is collectively experiencing a Golden Age of accelerated learning with no geographic, economic, class, or age-related limitations. Anyone with a mobile phone can learn from the most talented people in their field, for free.

Nothing like this has ever happened in the history of human cultural evolution. Anybody who wants to can raise their game in a small fraction of the time it would have taken ten or twenty years ago.

The first time my mind was blown by this fact was maybe five years ago. The pipes in my house were making a weird loud vibrating sound. After a quick internet search I found a helpful guy on YouTube demonstrating exactly how to adjust the water pressure in your house. I ventured into the crawlspace under my house, found the valve, and make the adjustment. Problem solved.

But now I’m all about raising my art game. Yesterday I was completely humbled not once but twice, in two different fields. I watched Ian Kirkpatrick break down his drums on Dua Lipa – Pretty Please. I’ve been making beats for three decades, with a fair amount of success, but I found at least a dozen tips I could immediately implement from this one video. Multi-platinum-selling producers are willing to tell you exactly how they do it, for free.

Another one of my nerdy hobbies is painting fantasy miniatures. I’ve been painting off-and-on since I was a teenager, but resources for learning how to paint were scarce when I first started. I remember getting some very basic tips from a booklet that came with a paint set, and that was all I had for many years. It wasn’t until I started watching artists on YouTube that I really started to gain some technique. Watching extremely skilled painters like Miniac, Ninjon, Lyla Mev, and Squidmar is truly inspiring. But yesterday I discovered a painter on another level entirely. Watching Marco Frison speed paint a miniature using only three primary colors and black and white, exhibiting his color theory genius while mixing and blending on a wet palette — it blew my mind. It was almost too much. I felt overwhelmed by the quality and quantity of knowledge being dropped. But having slept on it, I’m excited to actually try some of Marco’s methods, even though my own first attempts will be clumsy.

For learning how to write better, YouTube isn’t the perfect medium. But I have read life-changing blog posts that have bettered not only my writing technique, but also my productivity. For example Rachel Aron’s breakdown of how she consistently writes up to 10k words per day. While I generally only write for a couple hours in the morning and average between 600-1000 words per day, I’ve used her advice to easily ramp it up to 2-3k per day when I want or need to.

It’s such a better situation than learning this stuff on your own by trial-and-error. Or paying tuition or course fees and slowly gaining knowledge from a small handful of individuals who may not even be that talented. I’m not knocking other forms of learning — you can’t replace working with a skilled teacher in person, or practicing with others and getting immediate feedback. But if you’re not also partaking of the free knowledge the masters are handing out for free, you’re missing out.

In conclusion, Sean O’Malley breaks down his signature jab. So that’s how he hits people as if his hands were invisible.

Clean-Up Days vs. Build-Up Days (in physiology and life)

Over the past few years I’ve been trying to put on some additional muscle. Overall my progress has been slow. This is due to genetics, my inconsistent training, my distaste for eating large quantities of protein, and my age (though gaining muscle wasn’t much easier in my twenties).

There’s another factor though: supplementation. Many of the anti-aging and disease-preventing supplements I take boost AMPK and inhibit mTor. MTor is required for muscle growth, so inhibiting it on a daily basis isn’t helping me gain muscle tissue.

So going forward, I’m going to try to line everything up for more effective results, as follows:

Moving Beyond Punishment in Parenting

Recently I’ve been watching the YouTube channel Fenrir Canine Training. I love this trainer’s approach, which is almost entirely based on positive reinforcement and building trust and engagement with the dog. The trainer’s argument against punishing your dog is that the only thing it does is teach the dog to be scared of you.

That makes a lot of sense to me, and I regret that we didn’t fully take this approach when training our own dog (a rescue with a nervous temperament). We deferred to professional dog trainers and assumed they knew better, but some of the techniques they used and recommended we use (like a shock collar) didn’t feel right, and we quickly abandoned them.

The more I think about punishment, the more I believe it doesn’t have any place in any relationship in which you are trying to build trust and engagement. Punishing someone makes sense in the context of a combat sports grudge match (or chess match, for the matter). Punishment is appropriate to dole out to your enemies and adversaries, but not your dog or your kids.

Why I Opened a Crypto Account

About a month ago I opened a Coinbase account. I’d been watching Bitcoin since it’s inception, but had always been reluctant to buy in. I didn’t want to store significant amounts of “money” on a hard drive that might be lost or damaged, or in a password-protected “wallet” that I might lose the password to. I liked the idea of cryptocurrency, but whenever I looked into the details of how to actually acquire and store Bitcoin, I lost steam.

My hesitancy seemed prescient when Mt. Gox (the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time) experienced security breaches, coin theft, bankruptcy, and collapse. I patted myself on the back once again for avoiding crypto when Canadian exchange QuadrigaCX ceased operations and declared bankruptcy, taking the coins of its investors with it. Gerald Cotten, who ran Quadriga from his laptop and kept all the passwords in his head, may or may not have died in India in 2018 (Reddit sleuths are convinced he is alive and well).

But as the price of Bitcoin rose, so did my FOMO. Trump’s four years of reckless spending and tax cuts made me wary for the future of the US dollar as well. What if China decided to peg the yuan to BTC (or to its own national crypto coin) instead of USD? There is no rule that the US dollar will be the global reserve currency forever.

I realized that cryptocurrency was here to stay, and I might as well have a stake in it.

Index Funds are Getting More Dangerous — What’s the Alternative?

The stock market is going crazy. The S&P 500 P/E ratio is at 42 and rising (the historical average is around 15). The Schiller P/E ratio (based on inflation-adjusted earnings over the last ten years) is at 37.

These numbers indicate that the stock market is overbought. Demand for ownership in profitable companies far exceeds supply, so prices of stocks go up. While inflation is contained for the price of milk, inflation is very much NOT contained for assets that interest the rich. Stocks, bonds, crypto, NFTs, etc.

For decades, parking the majority of your savings in a low-cost ETF that tracked the S&P 500 (like VOO or SPY) was the play to make. This strategy has consistently outperformed most mutual funds, hedge funds, and individual stock-picking investors.

But we may be reaching the end game for passive ETF investing. Hedge fundie Michael Burry (played by Christian Bale in The Big Short) has warned about the risks of ETF investing. Passive investing eliminates price discovery. In other words, the S&P 500 includes some extremely overvalued stinkers, with P/E ratios in the hundreds or even thousands. P/E isn’t the only important metric when evaluating the price of a stock, but it’s a risky one to entirely ignore.

Burry also raises concerns about liquidity. All is well when money is flowing into ETFs, but what happens when money flows out? As Burry said, “The theater keeps getting more crowded, but the exit door is the same as it always was.”

So what are we supposed to do with our life savings (if we’re fortunate enough to have any)? Keep it all in cash, and lose to inflation every year? Buy lumps of valuable metals and squirrel them away in a safe deposit box? All well and good until Elon Musk brings home a gold-nugget asteroid and the price plummets. Buy Bitcoin? Bitcoin is just as inflated as everything else, being an asset of limited supply that interests the rich.

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